|
Jan 30, 2009
Be alert for a crash scenario developing IF well-tested support near 8000 is broken,Jan 29, 2009 7:20 AM We got the minimum predicted target for the
countertrend bear rally exactly-877 S and P 500.See below...if you didn't take a
quick profit then, from S and P 500 810, we are due for at least an intraday
pullback, at minimum, so don't lose your paper profits.More up is possible but
the main trend is still down.
"Jan 22, 2009 Close Bear market rally - maybe to 870-880 S and P 500, less likely 920-960, unlikely 1015, followed by decline." Jan 26, 2009 7:50 AM Now neutral on gold and corn, close any positions. Whipsaw heaven. Jan 23, 2009 7:05 AM Whipsaw equity market-to confuse the majority and make the market makers and specialists rich. Remember this is still a bear market and rallies are being used to lighten up positions by large investors, selling into any strength. 8000 DJIA is being supported, perhaps by the fabled "government plunge protection team", but eventually it will break. Will we get the projected short term oversold countertrend rally? If we do, its a chance to sell, not buy. Jan 22, 2009 Close Bear market rally - maybe to 870-880 S and P 500, less likely 920-960, unlikely 1015, followed by decline. Jan 20,2009 We have broken support, very well-tested at DJIA
8000, and we next go to 7500, the old November lows. The market may make a stand
there, but it will fail eventually.
Where next?
Look at a very long term equities chart, going
back to 1830. All markets, over hundreds of years, oscillate between bands of
extreme overbought and extreme oversold. If we draw envelopes of these extremes,
2000-2007 represented extreme overbought on many measures, similar to 1928,which
lead into the last great depression. After extreme overbought comes extreme oversold, as
inevitable as night follows day, and day follows night. The lower channel of the
extreme oversold touches 3500 DJIA, or perhaps 2100 in an extreme
throwover. S and P 500 is looking for the November lows
next,750 or so, then next,after some dithering, eventually 572. Preservation of
trading capital is paramount in these once-in-a-generation events. Buying the
dips has trained 40 years of investors to believe the market always comes
back. Don't be a deer in the headlights - if you are
still holding long positions and praying, remember that in extreme events, 90%
of capital can be lost. Anyone remember 38916 on the Nikkei 225? Its now
7909.So, yes, the unimaginable can happen. The word,
investor, has come to mean "never to sell", not " to put (money) to use, by purchase or expenditure,
in something offering potential profitable returns, as interest, income, or
appreciation in value." You can't get a return if
you don't cash out at some point. Right now, the last 25 years of stock gains
are looking like a big head and shoulders top formation, with the right shoulder
in process of being violated.
Disclaimer: As always, this is just our opinion, and just for entertainment- no personal financial advice is implied. No decisions should be made without consulting your individual brilliant advisor who has guided you so skillfully through the last 2 1/2 years...nuf' said? Jan 20, 2009 Now neutral on corn-looking to move up a bit from here, no trade recommendation as of now, too much whipsaw. Jan 20, 2009 Write this down. DJIA( DOW) 3500 in 2010. Don't forget where you heard it first. Everything else is noise. Jan 16, 2009 Countertrend rally likely here, but we are going to revisit the old November lows eventually, as said in November after we hit them before. Jan 12, 2009 after close Expect a likely short covering rally/oversold pop Tuesday. After 80 some S and P 500 points down from the Jan 2
topping area, shorts will want the fast coin they
made.
"Corn has reversed to a sell after the recemt short covering rally." Friday, Jan 9, 2009 close Between Monday's S and P 500 high of 936, and Tuesday's high of 941, after our premarket sell advice of 5 am Monday, Friday's close of 890 gave 46 or more S and P 500 points saved long or earned short. Look for followthrough Monday, cover shorts. Will look on weekend to see if there is a low risk long entry we are comfortable with. Jan 5, 2009 5:50 AM If you have holiday credit card bills today would be a good day to pay some down with the last S and P 500 rally's profits...hint, hint. GLD overbought - likely decline. Jan 1, 2008 Corn has moved past the 52 day moving average and seem to be under professional buying during pullbacks; perhaps this is where hot money is going after the recently confused trading range of the king of precious metals - which we've called. Buyers in corn between 375-400. Dec 28, 2008 GLD spike rally likely then a
decline.
Dec 18, 2008 GLD? Short term we are looking for a stochastic SELL, not a buy. While the world panics from Helicopter Ben's money madness, let's go contrarian and look for a SELL on GLD, not here yet, but maybe today or tommorow. I'll post it. Hope you guys loved the last 5% DJIA UP from last commentary, and got your holiday bills paid. Wasn't 9000 quite, but the bias was right, again. Remember this site is FREE, and you would have saved your 401 K completely reading it from July 18,2007.....lol. Dec 15, 2008 Seasonal rally historically from December 15-17 period to last trading day of year suggests another try for 9000. Close above 8823 will likely give 9000 another try. What are the odds? Since 1915, only 2 of 8 showed declines in this period. Longer term bear still intact, so this is still countertrend trading, and as such, use sensible stops and smaller positions. |
|
|