|
Jan 1, 2008
Corn has moved past the 52 day moving average and seem to be under professional buying during pullbacks; perhaps this is where hot money is going after the recently confused trading range of the king of precious metals - which we've called. Buyers in corn between 375-400. Dec 28, 2008 GLD spike rally likely then a
decline.
Dec 18, 2008 GLD? Short term we are looking for a stochastic SELL, not a buy. While the world panics from Helicopter Ben's money madness, let's go contrarian and look for a SELL on GLD, not here yet, but maybe today or tommorow. I'll post it. Hope you guys loved the last 5% DJIA UP from last commentary, and got your holiday bills paid. Wasn't 9000 quite, but the bias was right, again. Remember this site is FREE, and you would have saved your 401 K completely reading it from July 18,2007.....lol. Dec 15, 2008 Seasonal rally historically from December 15-17 period to last trading day of year suggests another try for 9000. Close above 8823 will likely give 9000 another try. What are the odds? Since 1915, only 2 of 8 showed declines in this period. Longer term bear still intact, so this is still countertrend trading, and as such, use sensible stops and smaller positions. Dec 12, 2008 On December 8th we finally got the 9000 area we predicted here before. Now, we get the news that another hedge fund blows up; this time, the crook admits it was a scam from the beginning. Traders will look for the next shoe to drop. We suggested profit taking at the last spike, and readers had several opportunities afterwards as well, near 9000. No position now... enjoy the holidays... we hope you made/saved money from this commentary. Lots up whipsaws coming up - year end position adjusting. Avoid the dinosaurs lumbering around ! Nov 30, 2008 We didn't get 9050, but we got the holiday Thanksgiving rally, at least to 8829. Monday might well see the mid-afternoon short term top of this explosive countertrend move. Good chance to pay off holiday bills? Nov 25, 2008 Probably enough momentum after a short pullback to get to 9050 DJIA. Heavier-weighted DJIA stocks have broken some short term down rate of change lines. Longer term bear still intact. Nov 24, 2008 Although there is reason to believe we must at minimum retest the multi-year support at 7400-7500 we predicted would be hit a long time ago once the support of years was broken, oversold rallies into the holidays are often seen as traders lighten up positions. We hope you have done well with the long term position biases we have posted here, and we wish you a happy and prosperous holiday- and many thanks to those who have noticed we called the July 18, 2007 supercycle top to the day near 14000 plus, the recent tag of 8200, and the tag of the 7400 area once 8200 was broken.The current destruction of wealth is simply unprecedented in recent history for those who didn't listen to lessons of the past. We haven't always been right, as this is presently the trickiest market ever seen, with a level of manipulation, evil, and corruption that is breathtaking, caused by complete lack of disregard to securities laws against insider trading and short selling. And yet, soon to be seen by others,as in 1928-1932, the market will be a trader's heaven, with huge rallies and declines to come with unprecedented volatility. Only those who believed the mantra of buy and hold in spite of the longer term trendbreaks are ruined. For those, we have the greatest sympathy and compassion. "July 18 ,2007 Major non confirmation sell on market. " Nov 20, 2008 Today look at DIA -798 must not be violated at close. Classical chart theory says we next go to eventually to 63 and a DJI target of 6380. Nov 3, 2008 History...After a big sell-off, maximum oversold, like 1987,where subsequently the 3 week moving average was closed above by the DJI since the 1940's... odds are for a move to the upper band, but then, the odds are for a quick retest of the lower trading band. Oct 13, 2008 Probable reversal rally of 3-5 days duration. Only for the nimble. Traders should use a move below 7948 as signal that the next leg down is started. Expect extreme volatility. Again, weak closes are a red flag. Could this be THE bottom? No overwhelming evidence. There is still another cycle low due late November-at a higher or lower level - not yet indicated. Lots of overhead supply.Eager sellers wanting to get out "even". Oct 10, 2008
If we close below 8300-8100 next stop is 7400. Oct 9, 2008
Hitting the lower 16% oversold band is
historically maximum oversold, except for 1928 and 1930. Eventual target may be 8200, with intervening over
sold rally. Watch the last hour of trading. Weak closes are a
red flag.
Oct 6, 2008 Market looks set to break the lower band which normally contains declines. It never reached the upper band on the "bailout rally". Weak closes show big money is selling strength still. |
